Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight - Ubuntu

This is a discussion on Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight - Ubuntu ; http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=8428 Gartner: Windows collapsing under its own weight; Radical change needed Microsofts Windows juggernaut is collapsing as it tries to support 20 years of applications and becomes more complicated by the minute. Meanwhile, Windows has outgrown hardware and customers are ...

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  1. Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight


    http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=8428

    Gartner: Windows collapsing under its own weight; Radical change
    needed


    Microsofts Windows juggernaut is collapsing as it tries to support 20
    years of applications and becomes more complicated by the
    minute. Meanwhile, Windows has outgrown hardware and customers are
    pondering skipping Vista to wait for Windows 7. If Windows is going to
    remain relevant it will need radical changes.

    That sobering outlook comes courtesy of Gartner analysts Michael
    Silver and Neil MacDonald. Half of a full room of IT managers and
    executives raised their hands when asked whether Microsoft needed to
    radically change its approach to Windows. Windows is too monolithic,
    says Silver.

    Silver also gave another anecdotal point to show the conundrum
    Microsoft is in: Clients are calling him to ask whether they should
    skip Vista entirely and wait for Windows 7, which promises to be more
    modular and potentially lightweight. Adrian Kingsley-Hughes has also
    found an impact on Vista from all of the Windows 7 chatter. Silvers
    recommendation: Go with Vista but on an attrition basis. As XP PCs
    die, replace them with Vista PCs.

    MacDonald argued that Windows may need multiple kernels to support
    increasing demands from customers and hardware makers. One size doesnt
    fit all, says MacDonald. For instance, look at the various demands an
    OS has to deal with:

    windows4.png

    If Microsofts response is to become more complex Windows fall will
    accelerate. As Windows stands today its already too bulky.

    windows3.png

    So what does Microsoft need to do?

    For starters, Windows should create versions for specific uses. These
    modules would be able to swapped out depending on the customer. From
    Gartners presentation:

    The more interesting question here is whether one OS can address
    both architectural requirements. Microsoft believes that it can take
    its core Windows software offering and package it to address these
    different architectures. But can this same approach be extended to
    embrace cloud computing and real-time architecture demands?

    Also see: Jason Perlow: If I were to design Windows 7

    Mary Jo Foley: Why Windows 7 might go to pieces

    Multiple Windowsthat will be virtualized of coursewill screw up
    Microsofts business model. Microsoft doesnt like anything in between
    Windows and the hardware. Ninety-five percent of its revenue comes
    from OEMs, says MacDonald.

    Regardless of the pain for Microsoft, the software giant needs to
    shorten development times and innovate on an ongoing basis, make its
    experience consistent between platforms and solve compatibility
    problems among various flavors of Windows.

    A few key redesign ideas from Silver and MacDonald:

    Windows should be able to be tailored to specific
    applications. MacDonald questioned what the OS will become once
    applications are virtualized. Do you need a full OS everywhere?
    No. The job of an OS may be taken over by the hypervisor. Stray
    thought: Taking that logic further perhaps VMware becomes the real OS.

    Better security. MacDonald says Windows should link identities to
    applications so software doesnt act abnormally. For instance, Notepad
    would be limited to inputting text. Why would notepad.exe have rights
    to network ports, the registry and scan a file system? Notepad should
    be assigned an identity and limited to a specific use. Microsoft
    doesnt do this today, says MacDonald. It would require significant
    kernel changes. MacDonald added that few operating systems limit what
    applications can do. The one software project that takes this approach
    is the One Laptop Per Child project.

    Make migration to new versions easier. Application packaging takes
    forever, says Silver. Theres also the problem of Windows rot. Windows
    rot is what happens to a machine after running Windows for three or
    four years and it gets slow and barely functions. The fix is to
    reinstall everything and rebuild the PC. Thats a manual effort that
    takes too much time.

    Simplify licensing to focus on specific devices. Licensing is too
    difficult for mere mortals to understand, says Silver. The problem: A
    version of Windows is tied to one PC. The way people work today will
    require a licensing do over, argues Silver. From Gartners
    presentation:

    It is possible that several entities will own different hardware
    and software components on a single machine, and there needs to be
    flexibility in ownership, management and movement of the
    assets. Microsoft Windows and Office licenses are ultimately tied to
    the device and not to the user, which makes no sense in a world in
    which a users work space migrates between multiple devices.

    Something as common sense as Id like Office to go with me doesnt work
    under current licensing, says MacDonald.

    The bottom line for Gartner is that Windows needs to be replaced,
    lock-in needs to end and product schedules need to be more
    predictable. Windows should also be more manageable. The Windows user
    experience will become less integrated to become a composite adaptive
    work space, which means in English that some applications will be tied
    to location and the users identity.

    All of these items are good ideas that are very academic. Will Windows
    7 become this adaptive thing that Gartner describes? Probably
    not. Gartner argues that Microsoft should use virtualization to solve
    the backward compatibility issue plaguing Windows. Will Windows 7
    jettison its current kernel for multiple versions? Not likely.

    Some of these changes may happen, but the move will be gradual at
    best. I agree that Windows has too many legacy constraints with
    reverse compatibility, but what would happen if Microsoft did a clean
    break from older apps? Meanwhile, these legacy constraints have also
    provided billions of dollars in revenue for Microsoft. One of the
    reasons Microsoft has a monopoly is because it still works with older
    stuff. If Microsoft did a clean break it would give you an excuse to
    pick a new operating system.

    Windows clearly needs to change, but the question is really
    timing. How fast will Windows collapse under its weight? Itll take
    longer than folks think.

  2. Re: Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight


    : customers are
    : pondering skipping Vista to wait for Windows 7.

    I'm one. I hope it's better than Vista!!



  3. Re: Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight

    On 2008-04-10, Cork Soaker wrote:
    >
    >: customers are
    >: pondering skipping Vista to wait for Windows 7.
    >
    > I'm one. I hope it's better than Vista!!
    >
    >


    Just curious how are you doing with your linux laptop? (I believe that
    it was a laptop install)

    i

  4. Re: Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight


    :
    : Just curious how are you doing with your linux laptop? (I believe that
    : it was a laptop install)
    :

    Out of general interest, seen as my Hardy install died a bit, I went back in
    time ;-)

    I tried:
    Feisty Fawn, didn't look massively different. Doesn't even support WPA.
    then
    Edgy Eft, looked dated, didn't pick up the wireless card at all, not even
    with ndiswrapper.
    then
    Dapper Drake, wouldn't boot! :-D
    then
    Hardy Heron Beta, but wouldn't install via netboot.

    So,
    I now have Gutsy back on it and will wait for Hardy to be released, and give
    it another shot.
    I may as well wait, I can't get Windows back on :-/

    I installed KDE on it too just be nosey. It's not a bad piece of software,
    I must say. I'm currently putting KDE on another machine that the "kids"
    use when they're here, it should be easy enough for them to use seen as
    they're Windows drones.
    I've fallen in love with Pidgin too. :-D It's even running on my Windoze
    partition :-)



  5. Re: Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight

    On 2008-04-10, Cork Soaker wrote:
    >
    >:
    >: Just curious how are you doing with your linux laptop? (I believe that
    >: it was a laptop install)
    >:
    >
    > Out of general interest, seen as my Hardy install died a bit, I went back in
    > time ;-)
    >
    > I tried:
    > Feisty Fawn, didn't look massively different. Doesn't even support WPA.
    > then
    > Edgy Eft, looked dated, didn't pick up the wireless card at all, not even
    > with ndiswrapper.
    > then
    > Dapper Drake, wouldn't boot! :-D
    > then
    > Hardy Heron Beta, but wouldn't install via netboot.
    >
    > So,
    > I now have Gutsy back on it and will wait for Hardy to be released, and give
    > it another shot.
    > I may as well wait, I can't get Windows back on :-/
    >
    > I installed KDE on it too just be nosey. It's not a bad piece of software,
    > I must say. I'm currently putting KDE on another machine that the "kids"
    > use when they're here, it should be easy enough for them to use seen as
    > they're Windows drones.
    > I've fallen in love with Pidgin too. :-D It's even running on my Windoze
    > partition :-)
    >
    >


    Pidgin is great indeed.

    If I was to make a suggestion, it would be to not try too many things
    at once, as far as system setup is concerned. Explore it slowly if you
    can.

    Obviously my suggestions does not apply to "apps" like pidgin, you can
    install as many of those as you'd like. But if you mess with too much
    system setup, it can make a big mess.

    i

  6. Re: Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight


    "Ignoramus16894" wrote in message
    news:ZeGdnbVqo_BmgGPanZ2dnUVZ_hCdnZ2d@giganews.com ...
    >
    > http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=8428
    >
    > Gartner: Windows collapsing under its own weight; Radical change
    > needed
    >

    At least it has something to collapse from. More than I can say for linsux.



  7. Re: Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight

    On Thu, 10 Apr 2008 16:28:57 +0100, Cork Soaker wrote:

    >: customers are
    >: pondering skipping Vista to wait for Windows 7.
    >
    > I'm one. I hope it's better than Vista!!


    You're not alone, for sure.
    Add me to the list if I haven't gone Mac by then.

    --
    Moshe Goldfarb
    Collector of soaps from around the globe.
    Please visit The Hall of Linux Idiots:
    http://linuxidiots.blogspot.com/

  8. Re: Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight

    On Thu, 10 Apr 2008 16:28:57 +0100, "Cork Soaker"
    wrote:

    >
    >: customers are
    >: pondering skipping Vista to wait for Windows 7.
    >
    >I'm one. I hope it's better than Vista!!
    >

    I'm skipping Vista to wait for Ubuntu 8.04. Probably skip Windows 7
    too.

    Roy Strachan - Registered Linux User 469226

  9. Re: Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight

    On Thu, 10 Apr 2008 20:33:47 +0000, Roy Strachan wrote:

    > On Thu, 10 Apr 2008 16:28:57 +0100, "Cork Soaker"
    > wrote:
    >
    >
    >>: customers are
    >>: pondering skipping Vista to wait for Windows 7.
    >>
    >>I'm one. I hope it's better than Vista!!
    >>

    > I'm skipping Vista to wait for Ubuntu 8.04. Probably skip Windows 7
    > too.


    Same here, but if past performance is a good precedent, the Windows
    addicts will be happy with Windows 7. After all, the horribly buggy DOS
    4.0 was followed by DOS 5, which worked and introduced QBasic, and the
    Windows Misbegotten Edition was followed by the successful XP. Vista's
    bootloader is specifically written to break dual-boot environments. I
    wonder if that "data integrity feature" will be mandatory in Win 7?

    Actually, I'll have to wait a little longer, because I run Mint. I just
    wish someone would reverse-engineer that Broadcom (May the fleas of a
    thousand camels infest their underwear!) firmware blob so that it could
    be incorporated into the open-source driver. I'm getting tired of
    twiddling with ndiswrapper after every OS upgrade. Next time I buy a
    laptop (not soon) I will bring a Linux live CD with me and have someone
    distract the salesdroid while I test it.

  10. Re: Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight

    On 2008-04-11, Stephen J. Rush hit the keyboard and wrote:
    > On Thu, 10 Apr 2008 20:33:47 +0000, Roy Strachan wrote:
    >



    > Next time I buy a laptop (not soon) I will bring a Linux
    > live CD with me and have someone distract the salesdroid
    > while I test it.


    You mean one can't walk up to a salesperson and honestly ask them if
    they want to try the live CD-ROM, maybe I'd use a System-rescue or
    some such, or a known anti-virus SW which runs on Linux ("Antvir"
    IIRC is based on "Knoppix").




    Dragomir Kollaric
    --
    This signature is licensed under the GPL and may be
    freely distributed as long as a copy of the GPL is included... :-)


  11. Re: Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight


    : Pidgin is great indeed.
    :
    : If I was to make a suggestion, it would be to not try too many things
    : at once, as far as system setup is concerned. Explore it slowly if you
    : can.
    :
    : Obviously my suggestions does not apply to "apps" like pidgin, you can
    : install as many of those as you'd like. But if you mess with too much
    : system setup, it can make a big mess.
    :

    I'm only messing with machine that can be easily reinstalled. I've learned
    from Windoze not to mess with things too much!

    Of course, Windoze generates enough errors just booting the bloody thing.



  12. Re: Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight

    On Fri, 11 Apr 2008 08:11:16 +0000, Dragomir Kollaric wrote:

    > On 2008-04-11, Stephen J. Rush hit the keyboard and wrote:
    >> On Thu, 10 Apr 2008 20:33:47 +0000, Roy Strachan wrote:
    >>

    >
    >
    >> Next time I buy a laptop (not soon) I will bring a Linux live CD with
    >> me and have someone distract the salesdroid while I test it.

    >
    > You mean one can't walk up to a salesperson and honestly ask them if
    > they want to try the live CD-ROM, maybe I'd use a System-rescue or some
    > such, or a known anti-virus SW which runs on Linux ("Antvir" IIRC is
    > based on "Knoppix").


    Ideally, I could buy a preinstalled Linux system, or ask if a given
    system's hardware is fully supported by Linux. In fact, I would usually
    get "Duuuh, Linux? Whazzat?" followed by some Vista hype. Trying to test
    a live CD would be met with suspicion by a salesdroid who doesn't really
    know what an operating system is, and would probably fall back on the
    Mommy Reaction "Get away from that, you'll break it!" Remember, to most
    people, Windows is *part of* the computer, and proposing to test another
    operating system is like telling a car salesman that you't like to test-
    drive his car with this alternate engine you've got. The suspicion is
    not unwarranted. I could, for instance, be using the store's hardware to
    launch some nasty bit of malware.

  13. Re: Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight

    On 2008-04-12, Stephen J. Rush wrote:
    > On Fri, 11 Apr 2008 08:11:16 +0000, Dragomir Kollaric wrote:
    >
    >> On 2008-04-11, Stephen J. Rush hit the keyboard and wrote:
    >>> On Thu, 10 Apr 2008 20:33:47 +0000, Roy Strachan wrote:
    >>>

    >>
    >>
    >>> Next time I buy a laptop (not soon) I will bring a Linux live CD with
    >>> me and have someone distract the salesdroid while I test it.

    >>
    >> You mean one can't walk up to a salesperson and honestly ask them if
    >> they want to try the live CD-ROM, maybe I'd use a System-rescue or some
    >> such, or a known anti-virus SW which runs on Linux ("Antvir" IIRC is
    >> based on "Knoppix").

    >
    > Ideally, I could buy a preinstalled Linux system, or ask if a given
    > system's hardware is fully supported by Linux. In fact, I would usually
    > get "Duuuh, Linux? Whazzat?" followed by some Vista hype. Trying to test
    > a live CD would be met with suspicion by a salesdroid who doesn't really
    > know what an operating system is, and would probably fall back on the
    > Mommy Reaction "Get away from that, you'll break it!" Remember, to most
    > people, Windows is *part of* the computer, and proposing to test another
    > operating system is like telling a car salesman that you't like to test-
    > drive his car with this alternate engine you've got. The suspicion is
    > not unwarranted. I could, for instance, be using the store's hardware to
    > launch some nasty bit of malware.


    Supposedly, all Dells support Linux in the sense that all hardware is
    linux compatible.

    i

  14. Re: Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight

    Cork Soaker wrote:

    >
    > : customers are
    > : pondering skipping Vista to wait for Windows 7.
    >
    > I'm one. I hope it's better than Vista!!



    From what's been posted about windows 7, it's being built around
    microsofts "small kernel" that had the video layerrs stiped oput along with
    a lot of other cruft... That being the case, I highly doubt that it's going
    to be compatible with anything current todate. More than likely, it'll mean
    another roud of software overhaul of the likes never seen in Redmond
    before.

    For me, it's just another blip on the radar... Linux is taking over, haven't
    you heard?

    --

    Jerry McBride (jmcbride@mail-on.us)

  15. Re: Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its own weight

    Jerry McBride wrote:

    > From what's been posted about windows 7, it's being built around
    > microsofts "small kernel" that had the video layerrs stiped oput along
    > with a lot of other cruft... That being the case, I highly doubt that it's
    > going to be compatible with anything current todate. More than likely,
    > it'll mean another roud of software overhaul of the likes never seen in
    > Redmond before.


    What it means, is that Micro$haft is flailing.

    --
    RonB
    "There's a story there...somewhere"

  16. Re: Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight


    "Ignoramus9437" wrote in message
    news:BL-dnT4c5ZEumJ3VnZ2dnUVZ_h2pnZ2d@giganews.com...
    > On 2008-04-12, Stephen J. Rush wrote:
    >> On Fri, 11 Apr 2008 08:11:16 +0000, Dragomir Kollaric wrote:
    >>
    >>> On 2008-04-11, Stephen J. Rush hit the keyboard and wrote:
    >>>> On Thu, 10 Apr 2008 20:33:47 +0000, Roy Strachan wrote:
    >>>>
    >>>
    >>>
    >>>> Next time I buy a laptop (not soon) I will bring a Linux live CD with
    >>>> me and have someone distract the salesdroid while I test it.
    >>>
    >>> You mean one can't walk up to a salesperson and honestly ask them if
    >>> they want to try the live CD-ROM, maybe I'd use a System-rescue or some
    >>> such, or a known anti-virus SW which runs on Linux ("Antvir" IIRC is
    >>> based on "Knoppix").

    >>
    >> Ideally, I could buy a preinstalled Linux system, or ask if a given
    >> system's hardware is fully supported by Linux. In fact, I would usually
    >> get "Duuuh, Linux? Whazzat?" followed by some Vista hype. Trying to test
    >> a live CD would be met with suspicion by a salesdroid who doesn't really
    >> know what an operating system is, and would probably fall back on the
    >> Mommy Reaction "Get away from that, you'll break it!" Remember, to most
    >> people, Windows is *part of* the computer, and proposing to test another
    >> operating system is like telling a car salesman that you't like to test-
    >> drive his car with this alternate engine you've got. The suspicion is
    >> not unwarranted. I could, for instance, be using the store's hardware to
    >> launch some nasty bit of malware.

    >
    > Supposedly, all Dells support Linux in the sense that all hardware is
    > linux compatible.


    for the most part true. But be careful with such items like wireless cards,
    some a Broadcom based and do not work with Linux.



  17. Re: Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight


    "Jerry McBride" wrote in message
    news:e847d5x6cm.ln2@supertux.my.domain...
    > Cork Soaker wrote:
    >
    >>
    >> : customers are
    >> : pondering skipping Vista to wait for Windows 7.
    >>
    >> I'm one. I hope it's better than Vista!!

    >
    >
    > From what's been posted about windows 7, it's being built around
    > microsofts "small kernel" that had the video layerrs stiped oput along
    > with
    > a lot of other cruft... That being the case, I highly doubt that it's
    > going
    > to be compatible with anything current todate. More than likely, it'll
    > mean
    > another roud of software overhaul of the likes never seen in Redmond
    > before.


    Idiot. As long as the same API's are maintained it doesn't matter how the
    video layer is implemented. Applications written to the API will continue
    to work as long as the API isn't changed. Internal changes are irrelevant.

    > For me, it's just another blip on the radar... Linux is taking over,
    > haven't
    > you heard?


    No I haven't heard. And neither has anyone else.


    >
    > --
    >
    > Jerry McBride (jmcbride@mail-on.us)



    ** Posted from http://www.teranews.com **

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