Today's model interpretation (28/07/08) - Scion

This is a discussion on Today's model interpretation (28/07/08) - Scion ; Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Friday. Issued 0512z, 28th July 2008 Saturday looks like being a wet (and cooler) day for much of the UK as a low crosses Scotland. The low moves ...

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Thread: Today's model interpretation (28/07/08)

  1. Today's model interpretation (28/07/08)

    Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Friday.
    Issued 0512z, 28th July 2008

    Saturday looks like being a wet (and cooler) day for much of the UK as a low
    crosses Scotland. The low moves away during Sunday and sets the scene for a
    more mobile spell of weather, with a NW/SE split regarding rain.

    Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
    http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
    High pressure lies to the NE, with light ESE'lies over the UK. Low pressure
    moves up from the WSW tomorrow, leading to stronger easterlies for most.
    Southerlies cover the UK on Wednesday as low pressure deepens to the west.
    Thursday sees warm southerliers as low pressure persists to the west.

    T+120 synopsis
    http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12014.png /
    http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
    http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
    http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
    The jetstream chart shows a trough over the UK, with the main thrust of the
    jet passing to the south. At the 500hPa level there's an upper low over the
    UK, while MetO keeps the low to the west instead. ECM brings upper
    southerlies with a low to the west and GEM concurs.
    At the surface GFS has low pressure west of Scotland, with a trough over the
    Scottish border. To the north winds are easterlies, with WSW'lies elsewhere.
    MetO has SW'lies over the UK with a shallow low to the west and ECM brings
    southerlies and SSE'lies due to a deeper low to the west. SSW'lies cover the
    UK with GEM, again with a low west of the UK.

    Evolution to T+168
    Day 6 with ECM shows low pressure over Scotland with SW'lies elsewhere.
    There are further SW'lies on Sunday as a weak ridge moves eastwards.
    GFS shows WSW'lies on day 6 with low pressure over Scotland. There's little
    change on day 7.

    Looking further afield
    On day 8 with ECM SSW'lies cover the UK, due to a low to the west. There are
    WSW'lies on day 9 as the low moves ENE'wards and on day 10 a col covers
    Scotland and Northern Ireland, with a ridge over England and Wales.
    A col covers the UK on day 8 with GFS. The col persists on day 9, but by dy
    10 low pressure moves over England and Wales. Scotland remains under a col.

    Ensemble analysis
    (http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...&ville=Londres)
    The ensembles show a mobile (but warm) "sine wave" pattern oevr the next
    week to 10 days.


  2. Re: Today's model interpretation (28/07/08)


    "Darren Prescott" wrote in message
    news:nI2dncIw3qsMyxDVnZ2dnUVZ8vCdnZ2d@posted.metro net...

    Whoops, sorry all - that's what a few sleepless nights due to the hot
    weather does for you!



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