Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight - Microsoft Windows

This is a discussion on Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight - Microsoft Windows ; http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=8428 Gartner: Windows collapsing under its own weight; Radical change needed Microsofts Windows juggernaut is collapsing as it tries to support 20 years of applications and becomes more complicated by the minute. Meanwhile, Windows has outgrown hardware and customers are ...

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  1. Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight


    http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=8428

    Gartner: Windows collapsing under its own weight; Radical change
    needed


    Microsofts Windows juggernaut is collapsing as it tries to support 20
    years of applications and becomes more complicated by the
    minute. Meanwhile, Windows has outgrown hardware and customers are
    pondering skipping Vista to wait for Windows 7. If Windows is going to
    remain relevant it will need radical changes.

    That sobering outlook comes courtesy of Gartner analysts Michael
    Silver and Neil MacDonald. Half of a full room of IT managers and
    executives raised their hands when asked whether Microsoft needed to
    radically change its approach to Windows. Windows is too monolithic,
    says Silver.

    Silver also gave another anecdotal point to show the conundrum
    Microsoft is in: Clients are calling him to ask whether they should
    skip Vista entirely and wait for Windows 7, which promises to be more
    modular and potentially lightweight. Adrian Kingsley-Hughes has also
    found an impact on Vista from all of the Windows 7 chatter. Silvers
    recommendation: Go with Vista but on an attrition basis. As XP PCs
    die, replace them with Vista PCs.

    MacDonald argued that Windows may need multiple kernels to support
    increasing demands from customers and hardware makers. One size doesnt
    fit all, says MacDonald. For instance, look at the various demands an
    OS has to deal with:

    windows4.png

    If Microsofts response is to become more complex Windows fall will
    accelerate. As Windows stands today its already too bulky.

    windows3.png

    So what does Microsoft need to do?

    For starters, Windows should create versions for specific uses. These
    modules would be able to swapped out depending on the customer. From
    Gartners presentation:

    The more interesting question here is whether one OS can address
    both architectural requirements. Microsoft believes that it can take
    its core Windows software offering and package it to address these
    different architectures. But can this same approach be extended to
    embrace cloud computing and real-time architecture demands?

    Also see: Jason Perlow: If I were to design Windows 7

    Mary Jo Foley: Why Windows 7 might go to pieces

    Multiple Windowsthat will be virtualized of coursewill screw up
    Microsofts business model. Microsoft doesnt like anything in between
    Windows and the hardware. Ninety-five percent of its revenue comes
    from OEMs, says MacDonald.

    Regardless of the pain for Microsoft, the software giant needs to
    shorten development times and innovate on an ongoing basis, make its
    experience consistent between platforms and solve compatibility
    problems among various flavors of Windows.

    A few key redesign ideas from Silver and MacDonald:

    Windows should be able to be tailored to specific
    applications. MacDonald questioned what the OS will become once
    applications are virtualized. Do you need a full OS everywhere?
    No. The job of an OS may be taken over by the hypervisor. Stray
    thought: Taking that logic further perhaps VMware becomes the real OS.

    Better security. MacDonald says Windows should link identities to
    applications so software doesnt act abnormally. For instance, Notepad
    would be limited to inputting text. Why would notepad.exe have rights
    to network ports, the registry and scan a file system? Notepad should
    be assigned an identity and limited to a specific use. Microsoft
    doesnt do this today, says MacDonald. It would require significant
    kernel changes. MacDonald added that few operating systems limit what
    applications can do. The one software project that takes this approach
    is the One Laptop Per Child project.

    Make migration to new versions easier. Application packaging takes
    forever, says Silver. Theres also the problem of Windows rot. Windows
    rot is what happens to a machine after running Windows for three or
    four years and it gets slow and barely functions. The fix is to
    reinstall everything and rebuild the PC. Thats a manual effort that
    takes too much time.

    Simplify licensing to focus on specific devices. Licensing is too
    difficult for mere mortals to understand, says Silver. The problem: A
    version of Windows is tied to one PC. The way people work today will
    require a licensing do over, argues Silver. From Gartners
    presentation:

    It is possible that several entities will own different hardware
    and software components on a single machine, and there needs to be
    flexibility in ownership, management and movement of the
    assets. Microsoft Windows and Office licenses are ultimately tied to
    the device and not to the user, which makes no sense in a world in
    which a users work space migrates between multiple devices.

    Something as common sense as Id like Office to go with me doesnt work
    under current licensing, says MacDonald.

    The bottom line for Gartner is that Windows needs to be replaced,
    lock-in needs to end and product schedules need to be more
    predictable. Windows should also be more manageable. The Windows user
    experience will become less integrated to become a composite adaptive
    work space, which means in English that some applications will be tied
    to location and the users identity.

    All of these items are good ideas that are very academic. Will Windows
    7 become this adaptive thing that Gartner describes? Probably
    not. Gartner argues that Microsoft should use virtualization to solve
    the backward compatibility issue plaguing Windows. Will Windows 7
    jettison its current kernel for multiple versions? Not likely.

    Some of these changes may happen, but the move will be gradual at
    best. I agree that Windows has too many legacy constraints with
    reverse compatibility, but what would happen if Microsoft did a clean
    break from older apps? Meanwhile, these legacy constraints have also
    provided billions of dollars in revenue for Microsoft. One of the
    reasons Microsoft has a monopoly is because it still works with older
    stuff. If Microsoft did a clean break it would give you an excuse to
    pick a new operating system.

    Windows clearly needs to change, but the question is really
    timing. How fast will Windows collapse under its weight? Itll take
    longer than folks think.

  2. Re: Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight


    : customers are
    : pondering skipping Vista to wait for Windows 7.

    I'm one. I hope it's better than Vista!!



  3. Re: Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight


    "Ignoramus16894" wrote in message
    news:ZeGdnbVqo_BmgGPanZ2dnUVZ_hCdnZ2d@giganews.com ...
    >
    > http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=8428
    >
    > Gartner: Windows collapsing under its own weight; Radical change
    > needed
    >

    At least it has something to collapse from. More than I can say for linsux.



  4. Re: Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight

    On Thu, 10 Apr 2008 16:28:57 +0100, Cork Soaker wrote:

    >: customers are
    >: pondering skipping Vista to wait for Windows 7.
    >
    > I'm one. I hope it's better than Vista!!


    You're not alone, for sure.
    Add me to the list if I haven't gone Mac by then.

    --
    Moshe Goldfarb
    Collector of soaps from around the globe.
    Please visit The Hall of Linux Idiots:
    http://linuxidiots.blogspot.com/

  5. Re: Gartner -- Windows collapsing under its [closed source] weight

    Cork Soaker wrote:

    >
    > : customers are
    > : pondering skipping Vista to wait for Windows 7.
    >
    > I'm one. I hope it's better than Vista!!



    From what's been posted about windows 7, it's being built around
    microsofts "small kernel" that had the video layerrs stiped oput along with
    a lot of other cruft... That being the case, I highly doubt that it's going
    to be compatible with anything current todate. More than likely, it'll mean
    another roud of software overhaul of the likes never seen in Redmond
    before.

    For me, it's just another blip on the radar... Linux is taking over, haven't
    you heard?

    --

    Jerry McBride (jmcbride@mail-on.us)

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