Apple's prospects in the recession - Linux

This is a discussion on Apple's prospects in the recession - Linux ; [Times are bad.] And yet, at the helm of the good ship Apple, all seems well. Steven P. Jobs calmly keeps the company on the same course it has been following since the skies were clear...all [analysts], it seems, list ...

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Thread: Apple's prospects in the recession

  1. Apple's prospects in the recession

    [Times are bad.] And yet, at the helm of the good ship Apple, all
    seems well. Steven P. Jobs calmly keeps the company on the same
    course it has been following since the skies were clear...all
    [analysts], it seems, list Apple as a buy...[quarterly report
    anticipated...]

    The numbers will undoubtedly document Apple’s momentum in taking
    market share from Windows-equipped PCs. Yair Reiner, an analyst at
    Oppenheimer & Company, wrote earlier this month that he expected sales
    of Apple’s desktop models to grow 13 percent, to 4.3 million, in the
    2009 fiscal year and notebook sales to increase by 12 percent, to 6.76
    million. Even if the industry suffers a downturn, he expects that
    Apple will suffer less than its competition and will still gain market
    share. “The upshot is that even against a very bleak macroeconomic
    backdrop,” Mr. Reiner said, “Apple should be able to continue
    growing.”

    Apple need not be much concerned about its rival Microsoft, which can
    do little but bang its head against the wall in despair about the
    Vista fiasco. As if Microsoft’s marketers had not suffered enough
    indignities, Computerworld gleefully discovered last month that some
    images for Microsoft’s “I’m a PC” campaign posted on the company’s own
    corporate site had been created with Macs. (Microsoft has since
    scrubbed away the incriminating mention of the Mac in the images’ meta-
    data.) As well as Macs are doing, analysts say Apple’s greatest
    potential resides in the iPhone. Andy Hargreaves, an analyst at
    Pacific Crest Securities, describes the iPhone as “the hottest
    consumer electronics product in the world,” a “game-changing product”
    that outdistances wireless players on the hardware side, like Nokia,
    Motorola and Research In Motion, and all the players on the software
    side, too, including Microsoft, Symbian and Palm. [Effect of iPhone
    on earnings...]

    Mr. Reiner, too, is looking forward to the earnings announcement with
    more than the usual interest. Apple has had great success in part
    because it has convinced customers to turn away from a $1,000 Windows
    laptop and to buy its $1,600 laptop instead for its stunning displays
    and ease of use...

    Looking beyond the immediate quarter, and even beyond the next
    calendar year, Mr. Reiner said he was extremely optimistic about
    Apple’s future — because of the iPhone, which is a miniaturized
    computer with, incidentally, phone functionality....

    IF hard times do arrive, Apple has a perfectly clean balance sheet,
    with $20.8 billion in cash and no debt. The biggest problem that its
    corporate treasury faces is what to do with the cash, which Shannon
    Cross, of Cross Research, estimates will grow to about $30 billion by
    the end of 2009.


    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/19/business/19digi.html

  2. Re: Apple's prospects in the recession

    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
    Hash: SHA1

    ____/ nessuno@wigner.berkeley.edu on Sunday 19 October 2008 13:59 : \____

    > [Times are bad.] And yet, at the helm of the good ship Apple, all
    > seems well. Steven P. Jobs calmly keeps the company on the same
    > course it has been following since the skies were clear...all
    > [analysts], it seems, list Apple as a buy...[quarterly report
    > anticipated...]
    >
    > The numbers will undoubtedly document Apple’s momentum in taking
    > market share from Windows-equipped PCs. Yair Reiner, an analyst at
    > Oppenheimer & Company, wrote earlier this month that he expected sales
    > of Apple’s desktop models to grow 13 percent, to 4.3 million, in the
    > 2009 fiscal year and notebook sales to increase by 12 percent, to 6.76
    > million. Even if the industry suffers a downturn, he expects that
    > Apple will suffer less than its competition and will still gain market
    > share. “The upshot is that even against a very bleak macroeconomic
    > backdrop,” Mr. Reiner said, “Apple should be able to continue
    > growing.”
    >
    > Apple need not be much concerned about its rival Microsoft, which can
    > do little but bang its head against the wall in despair about the
    > Vista fiasco. As if Microsoft’s marketers had not suffered enough
    > indignities, Computerworld gleefully discovered last month that some
    > images for Microsoft’s “I’m a PC” campaign posted on the company’s own
    > corporate site had been created with Macs. (Microsoft has since
    > scrubbed away the incriminating mention of the Mac in the images’ meta-
    > data.) As well as Macs are doing, analysts say Apple’s greatest
    > potential resides in the iPhone. Andy Hargreaves, an analyst at
    > Pacific Crest Securities, describes the iPhone as “the hottest
    > consumer electronics product in the world,” a “game-changing product”
    > that outdistances wireless players on the hardware side, like Nokia,
    > Motorola and Research In Motion, and all the players on the software
    > side, too, including Microsoft, Symbian and Palm. [Effect of iPhone
    > on earnings...]
    >
    > Mr. Reiner, too, is looking forward to the earnings announcement with
    > more than the usual interest. Apple has had great success in part
    > because it has convinced customers to turn away from a $1,000 Windows
    > laptop and to buy its $1,600 laptop instead for its stunning displays
    > and ease of use...
    >
    > Looking beyond the immediate quarter, and even beyond the next
    > calendar year, Mr. Reiner said he was extremely optimistic about
    > Apple’s future — because of the iPhone, which is a miniaturized
    > computer with, incidentally, phone functionality....
    >
    > IF hard times do arrive, Apple has a perfectly clean balance sheet,
    > with $20.8 billion in cash and no debt. The biggest problem that its
    > corporate treasury faces is what to do with the cash, which Shannon
    > Cross, of Cross Research, estimates will grow to about $30 billion by
    > the end of 2009.
    >
    >
    > http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/19/business/19digi.html


    It's not about balance sheets. Given the price of Apple products, they should
    prepare for suffering. People can't always afford an Apple PC, so they might
    as well convert the existing one/s to GNU/Linux.

    If anyone is poised to gained here, it's Linux. Ironically, pricing helps more
    than freedom.

    - --
    ~~ Best of wishes

    Roy S. Schestowitz | GPL'd Othello: http://othellomaster.com
    http://Schestowitz.com | Free as in Free Beer | PGP-Key: 0x74572E8E
    Cpu(s): 22.6%us, 5.0%sy, 0.1%ni, 70.6%id, 1.3%wa, 0.0%hi, 0.4%si, 0.0%st
    http://iuron.com - semantic engine to gather information
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    iEYEARECAAYFAkj7T5sACgkQU4xAY3RXLo6nVQCeOgDCjhTdB2 NFnC526x2dvCuc
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    =wDYj
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  3. Re: Apple's prospects in the recession

    On 2008-10-19, nessuno@wigner.berkeley.edu claimed:

    > The numbers will undoubtedly document Apple?s momentum in taking
    > market share from Windows-equipped PCs. Yair Reiner, an analyst at
    > Oppenheimer & Company, wrote earlier this month that he expected sales
    > of Apple?s desktop models to grow 13 percent, to 4.3 million, in the
    > 2009 fiscal year and notebook sales to increase by 12 percent, to 6.76
    > million. Even if the industry suffers a downturn, he expects that
    > Apple will suffer less than its competition and will still gain market
    > share. ?The upshot is that even against a very bleak macroeconomic
    > backdrop,? Mr. Reiner said, ?Apple should be able to continue
    > growing.?


    The only thing that makes me wonder about this for the long term is the
    fact that I see a lot of Macs for sale on Craig's List, and even in a
    couple of local papers that cater to people selling used stuff. Not 5-
    or 10-year-old models. Those are there, too. But much later stuff, like
    2.2GHz Macbooks, 17" Macbook Pros, 2.8GHz desktops. Many are even
    listed as just a few months old.

    That makes me wonder how many of those new buyers really are satisfied.
    It sure _appears_ some aren't.

    I think some of them might run right back to Windwoes if there was one
    they thought would actually work. Hopefully the ones dumping the Macs
    are moving to linux instead. But wives often run back to the husbands
    that beat them, so I wouldn't find it surprising if some of the sellers
    are even trying to pick up Vista.

    Of course, sales figures don't indicate large numbers moving to Vista.
    So they have to be going somewhere, even if it's to another expensive
    Mac.

    > Apple need not be much concerned about its rival Microsoft, which can
    > do little but bang its head against the wall in despair about the
    > Vista fiasco. As if Microsoft?s marketers had not suffered enough
    > indignities, Computerworld gleefully discovered last month that some
    > images for Microsoft?s ?I?m a PC? campaign posted on the company?s own
    > corporate site had been created with Macs. (Microsoft has since
    > scrubbed away the incriminating mention of the Mac in the images? meta-
    > data.) As well as Macs are doing, analysts say Apple?s greatest
    > potential resides in the iPhone. Andy Hargreaves, an analyst at
    > Pacific Crest Securities, describes the iPhone as ?the hottest
    > consumer electronics product in the world,? a ?game-changing product?
    > that outdistances wireless players on the hardware side, like Nokia,
    > Motorola and Research In Motion, and all the players on the software
    > side, too, including Microsoft, Symbian and Palm. [Effect of iPhone
    > on earnings...]


    The iPhone still can't take over. They tie themselves to one carrier.
    Not even the best one (IMO), and one some people wouldn't use if it was
    the only carrier. Adding Sprint to the mix would help, but it has the
    same sort of bad taste for some people.

    The RAZR still has more people using it to do web stuff than the
    iPhone, and in total users. For web use the iPhone is actually fourth
    according to one company that keeps statistics:

    http://www.informationweek.com/blog/..._ranks_be.html

    http://tinyurl.com/5qfugp

    > IF hard times do arrive, Apple has a perfectly clean balance sheet,
    > with $20.8 billion in cash and no debt. The biggest problem that its
    > corporate treasury faces is what to do with the cash, which Shannon
    > Cross, of Cross Research, estimates will grow to about $30 billion by
    > the end of 2009.
    >


    Maybe they can pick up where Microslop left off, gobbling up everything
    else, such a YAHOO! until they use it all up and can't INNOVA~1 any
    more.

    --
    Windows: In what position would you like to be taken today?

  4. Re: Apple's prospects in the recession

    On Sun, 19 Oct 2008 15:17:47 +0000, Roy Schestowitz wrote:


    > It's not about balance sheets. Given the price of Apple products, they should
    > prepare for suffering. People can't always afford an Apple PC, so they might
    > as well convert the existing one/s to GNU/Linux.
    >
    > If anyone is poised to gained here, it's Linux. Ironically, pricing helps more
    > than freedom.


    Linux has been free for 17+ years.
    It's desktop market share is pathetic.

    People just don't like Linux for some reason.


    > - --
    > ~~ Best of wishes
    >
    > Roy S. Schestowitz | GPL'd Othello: http://othellomaster.com
    > http://Schestowitz.com | Free as in Free Beer | PGP-Key: 0x74572E8E
    > Cpu(s): 22.6%us, 5.0%sy, 0.1%ni, 70.6%id, 1.3%wa, 0.0%hi, 0.4%si, 0.0%st
    > http://iuron.com - semantic engine to gather information
    > -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
    > Version: GnuPG v1.4.9 (GNU/Linux)
    >
    > iEYEARECAAYFAkj7T5sACgkQU4xAY3RXLo6nVQCeOgDCjhTdB2 NFnC526x2dvCuc
    > MRMAoIi3Ph6wBA4shpHy2r6SKeiVVhFx
    > =wDYj
    > -----END PGP SIGNATURE-----



    --
    Moshe Goldfarb
    Collector of soaps from around the globe.
    Please visit The Hall of Linux Idiots:
    http://linuxidiots.blogspot.com/
    Please Visit www.linsux.org

  5. Re: Apple's prospects in the recession

    Moshe Goldfarb. had de volgende lumineuze gedachte op 19-10-08 18:21:

    >
    > Linux has been free for 17+ years.
    > It's desktop market share is pathetic.
    >
    > People just don't like Linux for some reason.


    This has been said many times now on this news group. Too many times; I
    am starting to doubt it.

    It is certainly in the interest of the consumer/end-user that a sizable
    part of the world starts using Linux on the desktop, perhaps even that
    Windows as we know it disappears altogether. But something being in the
    interest of consumers, be it all one billion of them,
    will count for nothing if other -- more important -- parties are against
    it. They will do their part in discouraging change or keep keep an
    unbiased discussion out of the public site as much as possible. I
    believe I can name a few:

    Microsoft, that lives by regular "upgrades", some even with less
    features than the older versions (like MS Works that has its mail merge
    messed up since version 5, and has lost its customizable toolbars, etc.)

    Intel, that lives by designing ever bigger processors that must be sold
    too. Luckily MS designs its software so that these become necessary from
    the moment that older versions of software are no longer available.

    Other hardware manufacturers and vendors that profit in the wake of this
    caucus race.

    Only when this "big boys" change their policies, will a choice become
    possible.

    Antivirus- and antispyware firms that will lose their raison d'etre with
    the disappearance of Windows.

    All those people that earn their living by programming for the Windows
    environment.

    All those people that earn their living by
    purging/restoring/repairing/reinstalling Windows for all those who are
    unable to do these jobs themselves and are out of their depth when
    anything besides clicking on icons is in order.

    And on the other side there is this:

    The legendary instability of Windows, its BSOD everywhere and on any
    occasion, has made people afraid, afraid sometimes even to handle their
    computer, and certainly to change it (or have it changed for them) to
    another OS. This would necessitate the learning of new habits. This is
    daunting for anyone who can barely accomplish the tasks that he or she
    wants to do on a computer. This is what I am inclined to call the high
    cost of exit.

    Not much of a free choice, I believe

    I do not doubt that many computer savvy people hier in COLA can point to
    other factors as important.

    Greetings,

    Erik Jan.

  6. Re: Apple's prospects in the recession

    On Sun, 19 Oct 2008 20:31:48 +0200, Erik Jan wrote:

    > Moshe Goldfarb. had de volgende lumineuze gedachte op 19-10-08 18:21:
    >
    >>
    >> Linux has been free for 17+ years.
    >> It's desktop market share is pathetic.
    >>
    >> People just don't like Linux for some reason.

    >
    > This has been said many times now on this news group. Too many times; I
    > am starting to doubt it.


    So how do you explain it then?
    I encourage people to use Linux however most times they try it and dump
    just as quickly.

    Why?

    Compared to Windows it's a huge PITA for them and the net result is that
    for average Joe, Linux doesn't do anything better than Windows.

    Being free is obviously not enough to propel Linux forward.

    > It is certainly in the interest of the consumer/end-user that a sizable
    > part of the world starts using Linux on the desktop, perhaps even that
    > Windows as we know it disappears altogether. But something being in the
    > interest of consumers, be it all one billion of them,
    > will count for nothing if other -- more important -- parties are against
    > it.


    When something is free and something is good people will use it.
    Take firefox for example.
    It's market share is increasing dramatically.
    Why?
    Because most people find it better than IE.

    Then look at OpenOffice, which runs on Windows as well.
    It's going no place and that's a fact.
    Why?
    Because MSOffice is so much better that's why.


    > They will do their part in discouraging change or keep keep an
    > unbiased discussion out of the public site as much as possible. I
    > believe I can name a few:
    >
    > Microsoft, that lives by regular "upgrades", some even with less
    > features than the older versions (like MS Works that has its mail merge
    > messed up since version 5, and has lost its customizable toolbars, etc.)


    Sometimes the new versions are better.
    Sometimes they are not.
    The same can be said of Linux.
    Look at pan the newsreader for example, the older version is better.


    > Intel, that lives by designing ever bigger processors that must be sold
    > too. Luckily MS designs its software so that these become necessary from
    > the moment that older versions of software are no longer available.


    And you don't think new versions of Linux require more horsepower?
    Of course they do.
    The advantage Linux has however is that one can choose a lite version for
    older hardware.
    That's one of the things that makes Linux attractive to some people.

    > Other hardware manufacturers and vendors that profit in the wake of this
    > caucus race.


    The same can be said of any industry.

    > Only when this "big boys" change their policies, will a choice become
    > possible.


    Wrong.
    People have choice.
    They choose Windows over free Linux almost every time.



    > Antivirus- and antispyware firms that will lose their raison d'etre with
    > the disappearance of Windows.


    Probably true but they will find plenty to do if Linux desktop ever becomes
    popular.


    > All those people that earn their living by programming for the Windows
    > environment.


    So?
    What about the Cobol programmers.
    There is still plenty of work for them.

    > All those people that earn their living by
    > purging/restoring/repairing/reinstalling Windows for all those who are
    > unable to do these jobs themselves and are out of their depth when
    > anything besides clicking on icons is in order.


    And you think Linux is going to change this?
    Not a chance.
    Clue-less people are everywhere and they will simply move to the next OS if
    Windows disappeared.

    > And on the other side there is this:
    >
    > The legendary instability of Windows, its BSOD everywhere and on any
    > occasion, has made people afraid, afraid sometimes even to handle their
    > computer, and certainly to change it (or have it changed for them) to
    > another OS. This would necessitate the learning of new habits. This is
    > daunting for anyone who can barely accomplish the tasks that he or she
    > wants to do on a computer. This is what I am inclined to call the high
    > cost of exit.


    Sorry, but I don't see that happening.


    > Not much of a free choice, I believe


    There is plenty of choice.
    People just seem to ignore Linux for some reason.

    > I do not doubt that many computer savvy people hier in COLA can point to
    > other factors as important.
    >
    > Greetings,
    >
    > Erik Jan.


    It doesn't matter, the crux of the matter is that Linux is free and Windows
    or Mac are not.
    People are moving to the Mac rather than to Linux.

    The Linux community should spend their time trying to discover why this is
    happening and fix it instead of blaming everyone and everything for Linux's
    failure on the desktop.



    --
    Moshe Goldfarb
    Collector of soaps from around the globe.
    Please visit The Hall of Linux Idiots:
    http://linuxidiots.blogspot.com/
    Please Visit www.linsux.org

  7. Re: Apple's prospects in the recession

    In article <48fb7c61$0$13579$bf4948fe@news.tele2.nl>,
    Erik Jan wrote:
    > Antivirus- and antispyware firms that will lose their raison d'etre with
    > the disappearance of Windows.


    10 years ago, that would have been true, when the goal of most viruses
    was to harm your computer by doing things like formatting your disk.

    Nowadays, though, the main goal of viruses is to be part of a bot net,
    to be used for things like spamming. The goal of spyware is to grab
    personal information about the user.

    Neither of these goals requires any elevated privileges. They are both
    accomplishable just fine from an ordinary user account on Linux (or OS
    X).

    The only real issue is how to get the malware onto the computer in the
    first place. All that will take is for a non-Windows OS to become
    sufficiently mainstream for widespread social engineering. A heck of a
    lot of Windows infections come from people going to download sites and
    grabbing programs that promise to provide fun cursor themes, or desktop
    themes, or things like that. If Linux ever gets to be a majority OS,
    you will see plenty of sites popping up offering "25 Kool KDE
    Plasmoids!" or "50 Fun GNOME Themes!" and other such stuff, which will
    be infested with malicious Linux software.

    --
    --Tim Smith

  8. Re: Apple's prospects in the recession

    After takin' a swig o' grog, Tim Smith belched out
    this bit o' wisdom:

    > Nowadays, though, the main goal of viruses is to be part of a bot net,
    > to be used for things like spamming. The goal of spyware is to grab
    > personal information about the user.
    >
    > Neither of these goals requires any elevated privileges. They are both
    > accomplishable just fine from an ordinary user account on Linux (or OS
    > X).
    >
    > The only real issue is how to get the malware onto the computer in the
    > first place. All that will take is for a non-Windows OS to become
    > sufficiently mainstream for widespread social engineering. A heck of a
    > lot of Windows infections come from people going to download sites and
    > grabbing programs that promise to provide fun cursor themes, or desktop
    > themes, or things like that. If Linux ever gets to be a majority OS,
    > you will see plenty of sites popping up offering "25 Kool KDE
    > Plasmoids!" or "50 Fun GNOME Themes!" and other such stuff, which will
    > be infested with malicious Linux software.


    What, will they trojan top, or gkrellm, or ps, too?

    People need to know about the basic system tools. Or the distro makers
    need to put them more in the users face (like the distro updates icon in
    the sys tray).

    Anyway, Tim, have you ever seen a Linux (or Mac) machine trojaned?

    --
    "What do you do when your real life exceeds your wildest fantasies?"
    "You keep it to yourself."
    -- Broadcast News

  9. Re: Apple's prospects in the recession

    On Sun, 19 Oct 2008 16:39:08 -0400, Chris Ahlstrom wrote:

    > After takin' a swig o' grog, Tim Smith belched out
    > this bit o' wisdom:
    >
    >> Nowadays, though, the main goal of viruses is to be part of a bot net,
    >> to be used for things like spamming. The goal of spyware is to grab
    >> personal information about the user.
    >>
    >> Neither of these goals requires any elevated privileges. They are both
    >> accomplishable just fine from an ordinary user account on Linux (or OS
    >> X).
    >>
    >> The only real issue is how to get the malware onto the computer in the
    >> first place. All that will take is for a non-Windows OS to become
    >> sufficiently mainstream for widespread social engineering. A heck of a
    >> lot of Windows infections come from people going to download sites and
    >> grabbing programs that promise to provide fun cursor themes, or desktop
    >> themes, or things like that. If Linux ever gets to be a majority OS,
    >> you will see plenty of sites popping up offering "25 Kool KDE
    >> Plasmoids!" or "50 Fun GNOME Themes!" and other such stuff, which will
    >> be infested with malicious Linux software.

    >
    > What, will they trojan top, or gkrellm, or ps, too?
    >
    > People need to know about the basic system tools. Or the distro makers
    > need to put them more in the users face (like the distro updates icon in
    > the sys tray).
    >
    > Anyway, Tim, have you ever seen a Linux (or Mac) machine trojaned?


    Couldn't the same be said of Macs? That if OSX ever gets to be a majority
    OS, you will see plenty of sites popping up offering "25 Kool Mac themes"
    etc & other such stuff, which will be infested with malicious Mac
    software.
    And don't forget, there *are* already Mac viruses!;-)
    http://www.smallblue-greenworld.co.u...macintosh.html
    http://www.sophos.com/pressoffice/ne...acosxleap.html

    Funny, never needed any anti-malware apps for *BSD...

    --
    Did you know?
    Hadron Quack & his wife divorced over religious differences.
    He thought he was God, but she didn't.


  10. Re: Apple's prospects in the recession

    In article <6TMKk.49290$kh2.12587@bignews3.bellsouth.net>,
    Chris Ahlstrom wrote:
    > > The only real issue is how to get the malware onto the computer in the
    > > first place. All that will take is for a non-Windows OS to become
    > > sufficiently mainstream for widespread social engineering. A heck of a
    > > lot of Windows infections come from people going to download sites and
    > > grabbing programs that promise to provide fun cursor themes, or desktop
    > > themes, or things like that. If Linux ever gets to be a majority OS,
    > > you will see plenty of sites popping up offering "25 Kool KDE
    > > Plasmoids!" or "50 Fun GNOME Themes!" and other such stuff, which will
    > > be infested with malicious Linux software.

    >
    > What, will they trojan top, or gkrellm, or ps, too?
    >
    > People need to know about the basic system tools. Or the distro makers
    > need to put them more in the users face (like the distro updates icon in
    > the sys tray).


    Does your Windows box get infected? I'd assume not. Mine usually
    doesn't. I've had exactly two worms in the last 10 years--one Windows,
    one Linux. Both due to mistakes on my part:

    1. On Windows, I assumed that it was OK to run Outlook Express with
    insecure settings, since it was only used to read internal company
    mail from people who were not supposed to have access to anything
    that could infect them. Apparently, they did. :-)

    2. On Linux, my LAN's DNS server was exposed to the outside, and got hit
    by the li0n worm.

    But you and I aren't typical computer users. If Linux were the most
    popular OS, it would be being used by people who have no idea how to
    tell what's good and what's bad in ps and top. Hell, Windows has Task
    Manager, which is roughly equivalent to ps and top, and that hasn't
    helped people find out when they have trojans (even though many trojans
    would in fact show up in the process list).

    The game changes when you have a lot of users who don't see a problem
    with clicking on a banner that says "100 free emoticons for chat!", then
    don't see a problem with downloading a program, then don't see a problem
    with following instructions that tell them to run the program to install
    their new emoticons.

    >
    > Anyway, Tim, have you ever seen a Linux (or Mac) machine trojaned?


    Not desktops. Plenty of servers, though, usually through crappy PHP
    programs, but that's not really relevant here.

    If you are writing a trojan for commercial purposes (e.g., bot net
    client), you want to get on a lot of systems. There are two ways to do
    that:

    (1) Find remote exploits that you can use to get on, without requiring
    the user to do something dumb.

    (2) Convince the user to do something dumb.

    For #2 to be feasible, you need a target OS with a LOT of users. Your
    banners to attract surfers, or your spam with the URL of your download
    site, are only going to actually get clicks from a very small fraction
    of the people who see them, and a fraction of that will actually
    complete the download, and a fraction of that will actually run the
    program. (Vendors of legitimate software see a similar thing: there's a
    big drop from people who see your ads to people who click, a big drop
    off from people who click who will start a download, and another drop
    from people who download to people who actually run the downloaded
    program). Right now, this makes Windows the only OS of serious interest
    to people who wish to distribute malware via method #2.

    Method #1 makes more sense for less popular OSes. However, both Linux
    and OS X have been pretty good about not having exploitable remote holes
    open long enough for bot net writers to exploit them. Thus, Linux and
    OS X will remain safe until one of them gets big enough for #2 to make
    sense. Then you'll see the malware authors take notice.

    --
    --Tim Smith

  11. Re: Apple's prospects in the recession

    Tim Smith had de volgende lumineuze gedachte op 19-10-08 22:18:
    > In article <48fb7c61$0$13579$bf4948fe@news.tele2.nl>,
    > Erik Jan wrote:
    >> Antivirus- and antispyware firms that will lose their raison d'etre with
    >> the disappearance of Windows.

    >
    > 10 years ago, that would have been true, when the goal of most viruses
    > was to harm your computer by doing things like formatting your disk.
    >
    > Nowadays, though, the main goal of viruses is to be part of a bot net,
    > to be used for things like spamming. The goal of spyware is to grab
    > personal information about the user.
    >
    > Neither of these goals requires any elevated privileges. They are both
    > accomplishable just fine from an ordinary user account on Linux (or OS
    > X).
    >
    > The only real issue is how to get the malware onto the computer in the
    > first place. All that will take is for a non-Windows OS to become
    > sufficiently mainstream for widespread social engineering. A heck of a
    > lot of Windows infections come from people going to download sites and
    > grabbing programs that promise to provide fun cursor themes, or desktop
    > themes, or things like that. If Linux ever gets to be a majority OS,
    > you will see plenty of sites popping up offering "25 Kool KDE
    > Plasmoids!" or "50 Fun GNOME Themes!" and other such stuff, which will
    > be infested with malicious Linux software.
    >


    would not the use of repositories as is the custom with linux distro's
    be sufficient protection?

    Erik Jan

  12. Re: Apple's prospects in the recession

    Moshe Goldfarb. had de volgende lumineuze gedachte op 19-10-08 22:02:

    >>> Linux has been free for 17+ years.
    >>> It's desktop market share is pathetic.
    >>>
    >>> People just don't like Linux for some reason.

    >> This has been said many times now on this news group. Too many times; I
    >> am starting to doubt it.

    >
    > So how do you explain it then?
    > I encourage people to use Linux however most times they try it and dump
    > just as quickly.


    This is what I tried to do: corporate interest to keep the alternative
    out of sight (MS, Intel, Symantec, hardware manufacturers, etc.),
    individual interest to keep Linux out of sight (smaller programming
    firms or individuals who will lose former investment in Windows programs
    when a substantial part of the market adopts Linux).

    The second force that prevents the adoption of Linux is the lack of
    awareness that I tried to explain above. It is only since small
    computers are being sold with Linux pre-installed, that some people are
    becoming vaguely aware of an alternative. Almost all of my family and
    friends never heard of Linux before I mentioned it. When I offer it to
    them, they are almost all of them afraid to have to learn again how to
    handle it. It does not matter if I tell them that they do not have to
    learn many new things. Too much anxiety has gone into the finding how to
    handle computers. This is what I tried to express in my final paragraph:

    The legendary instability of Windows, its BSOD everywhere and on any
    occasion, has made people afraid, afraid sometimes even to handle their
    computer, and certainly to change it (or have it changed for them) to
    another OS. This would necessitate the learning of new habits. This is
    daunting for anyone who can barely accomplish the tasks that he or she
    wants to do on a computer. This is what I am inclined to call the high
    cost of exit.

    I am sorry that I could not make myself clear.

    >
    > Compared to Windows it's a huge PITA for them and the net result is that
    > for average Joe, Linux doesn't do anything better than Windows.
    >


    It does not do anything worse either. I have been able to "sell" Linux
    to two friends of mine who know nothing of computers and barely used
    them; they are happy with it now (I wiped the totally corrupted Win98
    and WinME installations respectively.)

    > Being free is obviously not enough to propel Linux forward.


    The being free does not enter into the equation in my experience.

    > When something is free and something is good people will use it.
    > Take firefox for example.
    > It's market share is increasing dramatically.
    > Why?
    > Because most people find it better than IE.
    >
    > Then look at OpenOffice, which runs on Windows as well.
    > It's going no place and that's a fact.
    > Why?
    > Because MSOffice is so much better that's why.


    I find it much easier to give openoffice to my friends than Linux. When
    they see it, they know that they can handle it with their knowledge of
    MSOffice.

    > And you don't think new versions of Linux require more horsepower?
    > Of course they do.
    > The advantage Linux has however is that one can choose a lite version for
    > older hardware.
    > That's one of the things that makes Linux attractive to some people.


    Newer versions of Linux use the bigger horsepower now that it is there,
    but it does not need it. There is no conspiracy with hardware manufacturers.

    >> Other hardware manufacturers and vendors that profit in the wake of this
    >> caucus race.

    >
    > The same can be said of any industry.
    >


    True, of course; but still made possible by an unholy coalition of MS
    and Intel.

    >> Only when this "big boys" change their policies, will a choice become
    >> possible.

    >
    > Wrong.
    > People have choice.
    > They choose Windows over free Linux almost every time.


    I just told you what causes this.

    >> All those people that earn their living by
    >> purging/restoring/repairing/reinstalling Windows for all those who are
    >> unable to do these jobs themselves and are out of their depth when
    >> anything besides clicking on icons is in order.

    >
    > And you think Linux is going to change this?
    > Not a chance.
    > Clue-less people are everywhere and they will simply move to the next OS if
    > Windows disappeared.


    thinking it over I believe you are right here.


    >> Not much of a free choice, I believe

    >
    > There is plenty of choice.
    > People just seem to ignore Linux for some reason.


    Objectively there is, subjectively there is not, as I tried to explain.

    > It doesn't matter, the crux of the matter is that Linux is free and Windows
    > or Mac are not.
    > People are moving to the Mac rather than to Linux.
    >
    > The Linux community should spend their time trying to discover why this is
    > happening and fix it instead of blaming everyone and everything for Linux's
    > failure on the desktop.
    >


    The fact that Linux is free is neither here nor there in my experience.
    The people around me do not move to either, Mac is as daunting to them
    as Linux for the reason I tried to explain.

    I am not blaming anyone, just trying to understand what is happening.

    On the few computers that I did install Mandriva Linux, Linux did not
    fail on the desktop, it works very well and my friends are very happy
    with it. But then, of course their opinion does not count as they are
    nitwits as far as computers are concerned. :-)

    Greetings

    Erik Jan

  13. Re: Apple's prospects in the recession

    After takin' a swig o' grog, Tim Smith belched out
    this bit o' wisdom:

    > Does your Windows box get infected? I'd assume not. Mine usually
    > doesn't. I've had exactly two worms in the last 10 years--one Windows,
    > one Linux. Both due to mistakes on my part:
    >
    > 1. On Windows, I assumed that it was OK to run Outlook Express with
    > insecure settings, since it was only used to read internal company
    > mail from people who were not supposed to have access to anything
    > that could infect them. Apparently, they did. :-)
    >
    > 2. On Linux, my LAN's DNS server was exposed to the outside, and got hit
    > by the li0n worm.


    I've had two hits. Inside a secure network.

    > But you and I aren't typical computer users. If Linux were the most
    > popular OS, it would be being used by people who have no idea how to
    > tell what's good and what's bad in ps and top. Hell, Windows has Task
    > Manager, which is roughly equivalent to ps and top, and that hasn't
    > helped people find out when they have trojans (even though many trojans
    > would in fact show up in the process list).
    >
    > The game changes when you have a lot of users who don't see a problem
    > with clicking on a banner that says "100 free emoticons for chat!", then
    > don't see a problem with downloading a program, then don't see a problem
    > with following instructions that tell them to run the program to install
    > their new emoticons.


    The game also changes when the users run as a "system admin" on their
    own desktops.

    I basically agree with you that userland tricks can be pulled on any
    system. However, as a normal user, you cannot do things like your NIC
    run in promiscuous mode, for example.

    > Method #1 makes more sense for less popular OSes. However, both Linux
    > and OS X have been pretty good about not having exploitable remote holes
    > open long enough for bot net writers to exploit them. Thus, Linux and
    > OS X will remain safe until one of them gets big enough for #2 to make
    > sense. Then you'll see the malware authors take notice.


    We shall, won't we?

    --
    Do what comes naturally. Seethe and fume and throw a tantrum.

  14. Re: Apple's prospects in the recession

    Erik Jan wrote:

    > mentally-ill troll wrote:
    >>
    >> People just don't like Linux for some reason.

    >
    >This has been said many times now on this news group. Too many times;


    Sure. Usually from the same mentally-ill fsckwit who has been spewing
    the above lie for years, replacing "are not aware of", which is the
    truth, with "just don't like", which is false.


  15. Re: Apple's prospects in the recession

    On Mon, 20 Oct 2008 08:19:24 -0400, Chris Ahlstrom wrote:

    > After takin' a swig o' grog, Tim Smith belched out
    > this bit o' wisdom:
    >
    >> Does your Windows box get infected? I'd assume not. Mine usually
    >> doesn't. I've had exactly two worms in the last 10 years--one Windows,
    >> one Linux. Both due to mistakes on my part:
    >>
    >> 1. On Windows, I assumed that it was OK to run Outlook Express with
    >> insecure settings, since it was only used to read internal company
    >> mail from people who were not supposed to have access to anything
    >> that could infect them. Apparently, they did. :-)
    >>
    >> 2. On Linux, my LAN's DNS server was exposed to the outside, and got hit
    >> by the li0n worm.

    >
    > I've had two hits. Inside a secure network.
    >
    >> But you and I aren't typical computer users. If Linux were the most
    >> popular OS, it would be being used by people who have no idea how to
    >> tell what's good and what's bad in ps and top. Hell, Windows has Task
    >> Manager, which is roughly equivalent to ps and top, and that hasn't
    >> helped people find out when they have trojans (even though many trojans
    >> would in fact show up in the process list).
    >>
    >> The game changes when you have a lot of users who don't see a problem
    >> with clicking on a banner that says "100 free emoticons for chat!", then
    >> don't see a problem with downloading a program, then don't see a problem
    >> with following instructions that tell them to run the program to install
    >> their new emoticons.

    >
    > The game also changes when the users run as a "system admin" on their
    > own desktops.
    >
    > I basically agree with you that userland tricks can be pulled on any
    > system. However, as a normal user, you cannot do things like your NIC
    > run in promiscuous mode, for example.
    >
    >> Method #1 makes more sense for less popular OSes. However, both Linux
    >> and OS X have been pretty good about not having exploitable remote holes
    >> open long enough for bot net writers to exploit them. Thus, Linux and
    >> OS X will remain safe until one of them gets big enough for #2 to make
    >> sense. Then you'll see the malware authors take notice.

    >
    > We shall, won't we?


    Um, well why haven't Linux servers suffered more than M$ ones?
    Even Blammer says that "40% percent of servers run Windows, 60% run
    Linux". Couldn't be that it's because M$ is *easier* to attack, could it?
    And nothing to do with "the more popular OS" myths, the Smith troll
    likes to repeat.
    http://librenix.com/?inode=21

    --
    Did you know?
    Hadron Quack & his wife divorced over religious differences.
    He thought he was God, but she didn't.


  16. Re: Apple's prospects in the recession

    Erik Jan wrote:

    > mentally-ill troll wrote:
    >>
    >> People have choice.
    >> They choose Windows over free Linux almost every time.

    >
    >I just told you what causes this.


    Err... It's all been explained to him *hundreds* of time over the
    *years* he's been trolling in here. You think you're going to make
    the difference by explaining it one more time?

    Just KF the mentally-ill POS.


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