[News] Beyond the Illusions Imposed by Big Lies, AKA "Market Share" - Linux

This is a discussion on [News] Beyond the Illusions Imposed by Big Lies, AKA "Market Share" - Linux ; On 2008-08-27, Roy Schestowitz wrote: > > Is Linux?s Marketshare Closer to 20% Or More? > > ,----[ Quote ] >| What I want to suggest is that the fact that you cannot prove what the >| marketshare is, combined ...

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Thread: [News] Beyond the Illusions Imposed by Big Lies, AKA "Market Share"

  1. Re: [News] Beyond the Illusions Imposed by Big Lies, AKA "Market Share"

    On 2008-08-27, Roy Schestowitz wrote:
    >
    > Is Linux?s Marketshare Closer to 20% Or More?
    >
    > ,----[ Quote ]
    >| What I want to suggest is that the fact that you cannot prove what the
    >| marketshare is, combined with general perceptions that computers are Windows,
    >| combined with Microsoft and Apple?s PR all make it perfectly possible that
    >| Linux?s marketshare is, in fact, closer to 15% or 30%, making it possibly
    >| more than the Mac. After all, a lot seems to suggest that the Mac is weak
    >| outside the US and Linux has cought on more outside the US. But hey, that is
    >| just a guess too!
    >|
    >| The fact is, we have no real evidence and no way of getting real evidence,
    >| so, until we get some good evidence, we shouldn?t just assume no one uses
    >| Linux.
    > `----
    >
    > http://www.linuxloop.com/news/2008/0...to-20-or-more/
    >
    > 40-50% installed base for GNU/Linux on the desktop, according to boycottnovell.
    > Niche sites are rarely accounted for in Big Lie 'studies'.
    >


    Niche sites are exactly what you want to avoid counting in a study. You want
    stats from sites that have wide appeal across all platforms.

    --
    Tom Shelton

  2. [News] Beyond the Illusions Imposed by Big Lies, AKA "Market Share"

    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
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    Is Linux’s Marketshare Closer to 20% Or More?

    ,----[ Quote ]
    | What I want to suggest is that the fact that you cannot prove what the
    | marketshare is, combined with general perceptions that computers are Windows,
    | combined with Microsoft and Apple’s PR all make it perfectly possible that
    | Linux’s marketshare is, in fact, closer to 15% or 30%, making it possibly
    | more than the Mac. After all, a lot seems to suggest that the Mac is weak
    | outside the US and Linux has cought on more outside the US. But hey, that is
    | just a guess too!
    |
    | The fact is, we have no real evidence and no way of getting real evidence,
    | so, until we get some good evidence, we shouldn’t just assume no one uses
    | Linux.
    `----

    http://www.linuxloop.com/news/2008/0...to-20-or-more/

    40-50% installed base for GNU/Linux on the desktop, according to boycottnovell.
    Niche sites are rarely accounted for in Big Lie 'studies'.

    This is the Year of the Linux Desktop Breakout

    ,----[ Quote ]
    | Declaring victory for the Linux desktop at the end of the day will based upon
    | looking at market penetration of Linux based clients vs. Windows and other
    | operating systems. I believe this is still the best measure but we may
    | finally be able to declare this year the breakout of the Linux desktop.
    |
    | When looking at operating system software adoption it is important to look at
    | trends and not a single break through event that will signal that “we have
    | made it.” It is kind of like economic forecasting – you look at a lot of
    | leading indicators to decide whether we are heading towards an expansion or a
    | recession; inflation, interest rates, productivity, employment rates, etc. It
    | is worth applying this logic when looking at the Linux desktop. Based on just
    | a cursory glance of news this week it is clear that all leading indicators
    | suggest a significant expansion on the horizon.
    `----

    http://www.linux-foundation.org/webl...ktop-breakout/

    "There's a lot of Linux out there -- much more than Microsoft generally signals
    publicly -- and their customers are using it..."

    --Paul DeGroot, a Directions On Microsoft analyst.


    Recent:

    Free Geek Chicago needs your help!

    ,----[ Quote ]
    | When FreeGeek/Chicago first opened in October, 2005, we hoped it would
    | fill an important role in the Chicago nonprofit technology world.
    |
    | Since then, we have sold dozens of $50 computers, served over 150
    | volunteers, and responsibly recycled several tons of electronics.
    `----

    http://vault.icstars.org/node/1078


    Linux’s Market Share: Is There Any Way To Know?

    ,----[ Quote ]
    | Canonical is claiming that 11% of businesses use Ubuntu. (If that is the
    | case, just imagine how many use Red Hat or Suse.) Gartner says that Linux’s
    | market share is 4%, putting it about even with the Mac. And Context says that
    | almost 3% of PCs sold in the UK have Linux pre-installed.
    |
    | [...]
    |
    | Short of every Linux distro calling home, which I hope will never happen,
    | there may never be a way to know how many Linux users there are. Perhaps the
    | downloads of some cross-platform application would give a rough idea, but
    | that application would have to be something that a Linux user, a Mac user,
    | and a Windows user would want equally. If anyone has a better idea, I would
    | love to hear it.
    `----

    http://www.linuxloop.com/news/2008/0...y-way-to-know/


    Netbooks A Linux Stronghold?

    ,----[ Quote ]
    | For years, backers of open-source software have hoped to push Microsoft out
    | of its dominant position in desktops and laptops. Windows-powered personal
    | computers account for more than 90% of unit sales,. Linux 4%, Gartner says.
    `----

    http://ca.biz.yahoo.com/ibd/080807/tech.html?.v=1


    Canonical To VARs: 11% of U.S. Businesses Use Ubuntu Linux

    ,----[ Quote ]
    | In an effort to rally solutions providers around Ubuntu Linux, Canonical is
    | telling resellers that 11 percent of U.S. businesses already run Ubuntu.
    `----

    http://www.thevarguy.com/2008/08/10/...-ubuntu-linux/


    Why sharing matters more than marketshare to GNU/Linux

    ,----[ Quote ]
    | In a recent article, Ryan Cartwright argued that free software isn’t playing
    | the “same game” as proprietary software is. He’s right—but that begs the
    | question: what game is GNU/Linux playing?
    |
    | Thirty years of proprietary software thinking have conditioned us to think
    | that marketshare is a critical measure of success, and so we’ve convinced
    | ourselves that we have to “win” against Windows in order to “succeed”. But
    | this is simply not true. GNU/Linux can be a very great success even if it
    | never achieves more than 1% of the installations in the world. The reason is
    | the difference between “power” and “freedom”.
    `----

    http://www.freesoftwaremagazine.com/...et_share_linux


    "We are implementing Linux in large govt projects across the country"

    ,----[ Quote ]
    | Infact, Linux is continuously improving its position. This can be proved by
    | an IDC report which says that in June 2006 Microsoft had 68 percent of the
    | marketshare and Linux had 21 percent whereas in 2005, Microsoft had 70
    | percent and Linux had 11 percent.
    `---- * * * * ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

    http://dqweek.ciol.com/content/Columns/107072002.asp


    The World According to Linux

    ,----[ Quote ]
    | How many Linux users are there in the world? 5,000? 5,000,000? 50,000,000? No
    | one is really sure. Linux users aren't forced to register their operating
    | system with any corporation; Linux users are free to install and use Linux
    | without anyone ever being the wiser. And what about all of the people who
    | don't even realize they're using Linux? Is Linux running your PDA? Smart
    | Phone? GPS? TiVO? Tablet? Router? Wrist watch? Car? Is Linux lurking inside
    | all of your electronic gadgets? Probably not, but it's turning up more and
    | more these days.
    |
    | [...]
    |
    | According to our statistics, 96.4% of computer users are running Linux. Whoa!
    | It looks like Linux has completely claimed the market. 0.6% of computer users
    | are running Apple; hmm, but I thought the Apple market share was improving?
    | Oh, and funny enough, 3% of computer users are running Windows. Wait a
    | minute! These stats are completely biased, right? Well, I hope you're getting
    | the point.
    `----

    http://linuxhow2.com/Feature_Article..._to_Linux.html


    Asia Pacific Digital Content Creators and Broadcasters Turn to Autodesk's
    Linux-based Solutions

    ,----[ Quote ]
    | Over a dozen broadcasters and post-production facilities in the Asia
    | Pacific region have recently embraced Autodesk, Inc.'s visual effects,
    | editing/finishing and digital color-grading products running on the
    | Linux operating system.
    |
    | [...]
    |
    | In its China Linux 2006-2010 Forecast and Analysis report, market
    | research firm IDC estimates that China's Linux market will grow
    | at a compound annual growth rate of 34 percent from 2006 to 2010.
    | IDC also forecasts that by 2008, Linux-based personal computers
    | * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
    | (PCs) will account for more than 9 percent of PC unit shipments
    | * * * * * * * * * * * *^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
    | in Asia Pacific.
    `----

    http://www.dmnnewswire.com/articles/....jsp?id=110125


    Dell leads the Linux workstation market

    ,----[ Quote ]
    | So about 15% of the workstation market is comprised of Linux machines -- far
    | ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
    | more than the barely traceable number of Linux desktop computers. Oddly, all
    | workstation manufacturers seem to have grown in chorus. "No one workstation
    | vendor seems to have benefited dramatically more or less with the growth of
    | Linux, though (anecdotally) white boxes would presumably have a much higher
    | penetration of Linux.
    `----

    http://www.thejemreport.com/mambo/content/view/362/


    Survey Says … Linux Desktop Is Ever More Popular

    ,----[ Quote ]
    | The first thing we can say about the Linux desktop in 2007 is that there are
    | more users than ever. The Linux Foundation 2006 survey had fewer than 10,000
    | people signing in. This year more than 20,000 Linux desktop users reported
    | in.
    `----

    http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1895,2235654,00.asp


    ,----[ Quote ]
    | Okay, now lets tie this all back in together. Novell claimed several months
    | back in a video ad that Desktop Linux users accounted for upwards of
    | 30,000,000 different people. That's 30 million. Recent statements made by
    | some Novell representatives indicate that they expect there are upwards of
    | 50,000,000 Desktop Linux users. Microsoft has never contested the number of
    | Desktop Linux users, and if anything the deal Microsoft signed with Novell
    | was tacit agreement that Microsoft believed those numbers to be accurate.
    `----

    http://zerias.blogspot.com/2007/11/d...-vs-linux.html


    Linux Users Base More Than doubled Over Last One Year: Survey

    ,----[ Quote ]
    | The number of Linux users has more than doubled over the last one year, says
    | a new survey by DesktopLinux.com. The survey also said Ubuntu remains their
    | Linux distribution of choice.
    `----

    http://www.sda-india.com/sda_india/p...19940,p,0.html


    Survey: Desktop Linux use grows

    ,----[ Quote ]
    | DesktopLinux.com, which is a Web site devoted to, obviously, desktop Linux,
    | has finished a survey that found more than a doubling of Linux desktop users
    | in the past year.
    `----

    http://weblog.infoworld.com/techwatc...es/013576.html


    Desktop Linux on the Rise, Linux Foundation Reports

    ,----[ Quote ]
    | For starters, almost 20,000 self-selected users filled out this year's survey
    | compared with fewer than 10,000 in 2006's survey.
    |
    | [...]
    |
    | In those businesses and organizations that have deployed Linux desktops, 39.5
    | percent are running Linux on more than half of their machines.
    `----

    http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1759...3119TX1K000059
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  3. Re: [News] Beyond the Illusions Imposed by Big Lies, AKA "Market Share"

    In comp.os.linux.advocacy, Tom Shelton

    wrote
    on Wed, 27 Aug 2008 16:47:12 -0500
    :
    > On 2008-08-27, Roy Schestowitz wrote:
    >>
    >> Is Linux?s Marketshare Closer to 20% Or More?
    >>
    >> ,----[ Quote ]
    >>| What I want to suggest is that the fact that you cannot prove what the
    >>| marketshare is, combined with general perceptions that computers are Windows,
    >>| combined with Microsoft and Apple?s PR all make it perfectly possible that
    >>| Linux?s marketshare is, in fact, closer to 15% or 30%, making it possibly
    >>| more than the Mac. After all, a lot seems to suggest that the Mac is weak
    >>| outside the US and Linux has cought on more outside the US. But hey, that is
    >>| just a guess too!
    >>|
    >>| The fact is, we have no real evidence and no way of getting real evidence,
    >>| so, until we get some good evidence, we shouldn?t just assume no one uses
    >>| Linux.
    >> `----
    >>
    >> http://www.linuxloop.com/news/2008/0...to-20-or-more/
    >>
    >> 40-50% installed base for GNU/Linux on the desktop, according
    >> to boycottnovell. Niche sites are rarely accounted for in
    >> Big Lie 'studies'.
    >>

    >
    > Niche sites are exactly what you want to avoid counting in a study. You want
    > stats from sites that have wide appeal across all platforms.
    >


    Plus they have to be unbiased. www.activex.com (which
    turns out to be a redirect to www.download.com/ActiveX
    anyway) would not be a good candidate, for example.
    Neither would www.gentoo.org, though the latter might
    get an occasional hit from a Linux-curious IE user.

    www.cnn.com might qualify; it's a popular generally
    OS-agnostic web site (though there are possible issues
    regarding video -- fortunately, CNN's video works fine
    for me).

    Ditto for news.bbc.co.uk, and a few other such sites,
    absent distinguishing issues such as Microsoft-specific
    tags, video capability, etc.

    www.boycottnovell.com would be highly biased in favor
    of Linux, mostly because Windows users would (I suspect)
    have little or no interest in Novell's alleged machinations
    therewith.

    Also, it is far from clear whether www.boycottnovell.com
    would have sufficient datapoints for drawing conclusions.

    And of course all these tell you is the number of hits from
    a browser; it says nothing about systems disconnected from
    the Web, systems impersonating Windows (to avoid certain
    Website stupidity that fortunately seems to be on the way out),
    and systems that have been modified in various ways, some
    legitimately, some not.

    There are additional issues in light of the number of zombiebots
    running amuck, especially if a website becomes a target of a
    DDoS/bandwidth-robbery attack.

    --
    #191, ewill3@earthlink.net
    "Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of
    elderberries!" - Monty Python and the Holy Grail
    ** Posted from http://www.teranews.com **

  4. Re: [News] Beyond the Illusions Imposed by Big Lies, AKA "Market Share"

    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
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    ____/ Tom Shelton on Wednesday 27 August 2008 21:47 : \____

    > On 2008-08-27, Roy Schestowitz wrote:
    >>
    >> Is Linux?s Marketshare Closer to 20% Or More?
    >>
    >> ,----[ Quote ]
    >>| What I want to suggest is that the fact that you cannot prove what the
    >>| marketshare is, combined with general perceptions that computers are
    >>| Windows, combined with Microsoft and Apple?s PR all make it perfectly
    >>| possible that Linux?s marketshare is, in fact, closer to 15% or 30%, making
    >>| it possibly more than the Mac. After all, a lot seems to suggest that the
    >>| Mac is weak outside the US and Linux has cought on more outside the US. But
    >>| hey, that is just a guess too!
    >>|
    >>| The fact is, we have no real evidence and no way of getting real evidence,
    >>| so, until we get some good evidence, we shouldn?t just assume no one uses
    >>| Linux.
    >> `----
    >>
    >>

    http://www.linuxloop.com/news/2008/0...to-20-or-more/
    >>
    >> 40-50% installed base for GNU/Linux on the desktop, according to
    >> boycottnovell. Niche sites are rarely accounted for in Big Lie 'studies'.
    >>

    >
    > Niche sites are exactly what you want to avoid counting in a study. You want
    > stats from sites that have wide appeal across all platforms.


    Yes, but the point not to miss that it's the niche sites that get totally
    ignored. You cannot operate under the assumption that your population is
    perfectly homogeneous and only sample from CNN, NBC, MSN, and Yahoo. You're
    stuck with a biased group, no matter how large it may be.


    - --
    "There's a lot of Linux out there -- much more than Microsoft generally signals
    publicly -- and their customers are using it..." --Paul DeGroot, a Directions
    On Microsoft analyst.
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  5. Re: [News] Beyond the Illusions Imposed by Big Lies, AKA "Market Share"

    On 2008-08-27, The Ghost In The Machine wrote:
    > In comp.os.linux.advocacy, Tom Shelton
    >
    > wrote
    > on Wed, 27 Aug 2008 16:47:12 -0500
    >:
    >> On 2008-08-27, Roy Schestowitz wrote:
    >>>
    >>> Is Linux?s Marketshare Closer to 20% Or More?
    >>>
    >>> ,----[ Quote ]
    >>>| What I want to suggest is that the fact that you cannot prove what the
    >>>| marketshare is, combined with general perceptions that computers are Windows,
    >>>| combined with Microsoft and Apple?s PR all make it perfectly possible that
    >>>| Linux?s marketshare is, in fact, closer to 15% or 30%, making it possibly
    >>>| more than the Mac. After all, a lot seems to suggest that the Mac is weak
    >>>| outside the US and Linux has cought on more outside the US. But hey, that is
    >>>| just a guess too!
    >>>|
    >>>| The fact is, we have no real evidence and no way of getting real evidence,
    >>>| so, until we get some good evidence, we shouldn?t just assume no one uses
    >>>| Linux.
    >>> `----
    >>>
    >>> http://www.linuxloop.com/news/2008/0...to-20-or-more/
    >>>
    >>> 40-50% installed base for GNU/Linux on the desktop, according
    >>> to boycottnovell. Niche sites are rarely accounted for in
    >>> Big Lie 'studies'.
    >>>

    >>
    >> Niche sites are exactly what you want to avoid counting in a study. You want
    >> stats from sites that have wide appeal across all platforms.
    >>

    >
    > Plus they have to be unbiased. www.activex.com (which
    > turns out to be a redirect to www.download.com/ActiveX
    > anyway) would not be a good candidate, for example.
    > Neither would www.gentoo.org, though the latter might
    > get an occasional hit from a Linux-curious IE user.


    Youtube and Google would be likely "unbiased" "wide appeal" candidates.

    [deletia]

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  6. Re: [News] Beyond the Illusions Imposed by Big Lies, AKA "Market Share"

    In comp.os.linux.advocacy, JEDIDIAH

    wrote
    on Thu, 28 Aug 2008 09:23:00 -0500
    :
    > On 2008-08-27, The Ghost In The Machine wrote:
    >> In comp.os.linux.advocacy, Tom Shelton
    >>
    >> wrote
    >> on Wed, 27 Aug 2008 16:47:12 -0500
    >>:
    >>> On 2008-08-27, Roy Schestowitz wrote:
    >>>>
    >>>> Is Linux?s Marketshare Closer to 20% Or More?
    >>>>
    >>>> ,----[ Quote ]
    >>>>| What I want to suggest is that the fact that you cannot prove what the
    >>>>| marketshare is, combined with general perceptions that computers are Windows,
    >>>>| combined with Microsoft and Apple?s PR all make it perfectly possible that
    >>>>| Linux?s marketshare is, in fact, closer to 15% or 30%, making it possibly
    >>>>| more than the Mac. After all, a lot seems to suggest that the Mac is weak
    >>>>| outside the US and Linux has cought on more outside the US. But hey, that is
    >>>>| just a guess too!
    >>>>|
    >>>>| The fact is, we have no real evidence and no way of getting real evidence,
    >>>>| so, until we get some good evidence, we shouldn?t just assume no one uses
    >>>>| Linux.
    >>>> `----
    >>>>
    >>>> http://www.linuxloop.com/news/2008/0...to-20-or-more/
    >>>>
    >>>> 40-50% installed base for GNU/Linux on the desktop, according
    >>>> to boycottnovell. Niche sites are rarely accounted for in
    >>>> Big Lie 'studies'.
    >>>>
    >>>
    >>> Niche sites are exactly what you want to avoid counting in a study. You want
    >>> stats from sites that have wide appeal across all platforms.
    >>>

    >>
    >> Plus they have to be unbiased. www.activex.com (which
    >> turns out to be a redirect to www.download.com/ActiveX
    >> anyway) would not be a good candidate, for example.
    >> Neither would www.gentoo.org, though the latter might
    >> get an occasional hit from a Linux-curious IE user.

    >
    > Youtube and Google would be likely "unbiased" "wide appeal" candidates.
    >
    > [deletia]
    >


    Very good point. Yahoo! might be reasonably unbiased, despite
    Microsoft's wooing thereof.

    --
    #191, ewill3@earthlink.net
    Conventional memory has to be one of the most UNconventional
    architectures I've seen in a computer system.
    ** Posted from http://www.teranews.com **

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