In comp.os.linux.advocacy, Moshe Goldfarb

wrote
on Wed, 2 Apr 2008 13:02:41 -0400
<1nr0b7c6p1w9i.u8co42g6wz4z$.dlg@40tude.net>:
> On Wed, 2 Apr 2008 09:48:13 -0700, The Ghost In The Machine wrote:
>
>> In comp.os.linux.advocacy, Moshe Goldfarb
>>
>> wrote
>> on Wed, 2 Apr 2008 11:28:18 -0400
>> :
>>> On Wed, 02 Apr 2008 13:03:55 +0200, OK wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Wed, 2 Apr 2008 02:35:25 -0400, Moshe Goldfarb
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On Wed, 02 Apr 2008 07:33:39 +0100, Christopher Hunter wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> Mushy Goldfart drooled:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Yea the entire city of Lardo Florida switched to Linux.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> ...and the entire German government, French government, most of
>>>>>> Scandinavia, /all/ of China, much of India...
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Microsoft is still hurting from that major coup.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Right now, they're ****ting themselves. They haven't got a product ("Vista"
>>>>>> is a disaster) and they can't develop Windoze 7 in-house - they're having
>>>>>> to /buy/ a kernel...
>>>>>>
>>>>>> C.
>>>>>
>>>>>Yet Vista surpassed 10+year old Linux in a matter of months.
>>>>
>>>> Three weeks, actually. Vista grabs market share at a steady rate of
>>>> ~1%/month.
>>>
>>> I stand corrected!
>>> Thanks!
>>>
>>
>> OK, so Vista takes over the desktop market in 2 years
>> (1 year = 52 weeks).
>>
>> This to me sounds a tad optimistic.
>
> There is the leveling off effect of course.
>

One can compensate for that by using an exponential
asymptote instead. Briefly, the adoption rate would be
characterized as

N(t) = N*(1 - exp(-k*t))
where
N = number of computers
N(t) = number of adoptees
k = some constant
t = time since release

It turns out we know DN(t)/dt = k*N*exp(-k*t) at time zero;
this might be characterized as DN(0) = k*N = 0.01%.

Ergo, k = 0.01, when expressed as ratio/week (or set N=1,
which might be simpler). We can now solve, picking 0.95%
of the target market for simplicity:

0.95 = 1 - exp(-0.01 * t)
0.05 = exp(-0.01 * t)
t = -log(0.05) / 0.01 = 300 weeks or about 6 years.

This means that Microsoft is going to have trouble,
since this adoption rate is greater than the 3 years
depreciation schedule.

What this translates into regarding Linux adoption, of
course, is far from clear; presumably OSX will attempt to
fill in the gap, and depending on submarket FreeBSD might
be a better choice.

--
#191, ewill3@earthlink.net
/dev/brain: Permission denied

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On 2008-04-01, Ezekiel wrote:
>
> "netcat" wrote in message
> news:z8OdndS2m-LM6m_anZ2dnUVZ_h2pnZ2d@supernews.com...
>> On Tue, 01 Apr 2008 11:39:10 -0400, Erik Funkenbusch wrote:
>>
>>> On Tue, 01 Apr 2008 16:29:33 +0100, Roy Schestowitz wrote:
>>>
>>>> Dear Distros: Embrace USB Installs!!!
>>>>
>>>> ,----[ Quote ]
>>>>| A while ago I purchased a new laptop. I carry it everywhere, and I've
>>>>had | several lead bricks in the past, so I opted for something small
>>>>and light. | The Fujitsu T2010 has been one of the best electronic
>>>>gadgets I have ever | owned. I have not regretted my choice for a
>>>>second, which is odd for me.
>>>> `----
>>>>
>>>> http://groundstate.ca/node/1232
>>>
>>> Yes, you can.
>>>
>>> Use Bart PE to create a bootable disk image that can be burned to CD if
>>> you want, then afterwords use a tool to convert to USB image.
>>>
>>> http://www.tomshardware.com/2005/09/...n_your_pocket/
>>
>> Now try posting the files and image for a preconfigured USB tool to the
>> Internet where others can use it and can join in refining it.
>

Ok, then I will move them back.

Let's see if you can punt or not...

> Now try not moving the goal posts.

Where can I download Bart PE?

Is this the only equivalent win32 tool available?

[deletia]



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