2008: Linux’s year on the desktop

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| Desktop Linux hurts Microsoft
| Linux has kept a big chunk of the server business out of Microsoft’s hands.
| But in 2008, Linux will hurt Microsoft on the desktop. Here’s how.


Quote for the day:

"Monopoly exists when a specific individual or enterprise has sufficient
control over a particular product or service to determine significantly the
terms on which other individuals shall have access to it."

--Milton Friedman


Big Picture Stuff

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| The same thing, I believe, with happen with Linux. It will slowly creep up on
| the IT world until one day someone will notice the landscape has been
| completely changed. At that time, the media wags will declare the Year of the
| Linux Desktop, but that won't really mark the tipping point--no one will
| really know when that happened, unless we were really paying attention. * *
| Like all good projects, the success of Linux on the desktop will happen over
| time, not all at once. So maybe we can put away the media hype this year. And
| the next. *


The year of the Linux desktop has finally arrived

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| While Windows advocates may smirk and say here we go again, as 2007 draws to
| a close I get the strong feeling that we may look back upon this year and
| recognize it with hindsight as the year that the Linux desktop finally
| arrived. There are a number of events that point to 2007 as being the turning
| point for Linux and it all started in January with the release of Windows
| Vista. * *


Linux gains despite and because of Microsoft

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| Despite the heightened competition over the last two quarters from
| Microsoft-Novell and a move by Oracle to undercut Red Hat on the cost of Red
| Hat Linux support service, Red Hat has reported double-digit growth in
| revenue and an increase in profit. *
| “The success of Red Hat has been able to validate the future potential for
| open source software,” Szulik says.
| Emerging countries are also lucrative markets for Linux, says IDC’s Gillen,
| because there isn’t as much of the legacy Windows technology to have to
| displace. *


Playing the numbers game: how many Linux installations and users are out there?

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| But smolt is only an opt-in tool and is not offered during text installations
| (Servers, etc.) at all. According to Fedora’s statistics page the estimated
| ratio between smolt data and reality is 1 to 10. This would result in 1.25
| million Fedora users - and therefore in 25 million Linux users. *
| [...]
| There is another possible approach to these numbers: Ubuntu’s Mark
| Shuttleworth estimated 8 million Ubuntu users in an interview in late
| December 2006. And both the Linux Desktop Survey and the web server logs from
| Distro Watch gave Ubuntu roughly 30 % of the cake. This makes more than 26.6
| million Linux users 8 month ago. * *