Linux Storm Coming
The arrival of the Asus eeePC and it's predicted RUNAWAY sales success will probably lead to a slew of Linux-based cheap, low-end laptops within a year. I predict that the Linux market share alone will reach 3% within a year and 10% within 2 years of global PC shipments. Linux will have almost TOTAL leadership in the low-end segment, although I predict Microsoft will counter this with a cut-down version of XP costing a mere $30.
In addition, the new release of Ubuntu Linux will lead to a big adoption of Linux in small and medium size businesses (SMB's). Many non-US countries will be switching over to Ubuntu in the next three years, with penetration in Europe reaching 40% in 5 years. The success of Linux in Europe will be heightenned by several national Linux brands, which will be marketed as 'Our Linux' and will be supported by the EU.
The failure of Windows Server 2008 will lead Microsoft to seriously consider dumping the Windows NT kernel for a BSD variant for their Windows Server 2012 release (codename: Lil Devil), since customers are clamouring for interoperabillity with Linux. The disasterous uptake of Windows Vista will be followed in 2009 by the moderately successfull Windows NeXT, but by then it will be too late to stop the Linux train.
Linux will gain Real Time capabillities as a standard in the kernel in 2008, resulting in a superiour desktop experience. Microsoft will copy this in their Windows NeXT release.